PV market global expectations for 2015
The IHS report, an American market research firm, expects that the global deman in PV will increase of 25 % in 2015 that’s because of the reduction of their costs and the demande of installation will also increase with two numbers to reach 55 GW. The biggest market is monopolised by China, Japan and United States of America. The installation of decenteralized PV in China will increace in 2015 of 20 % in comparison with 2014 to reach 4.7 GW. Across the world, The IHS expects that the decentralized PV wich the capacity doesn’t exceed 100KW will represent 30 % of the entire installations in 2015, with an expected installation of 15.7 GW rather than 13.2 GW in 2014. abour 70 % of the installations will be realized by the Japan. The United States should install about 2.2 GW of decentralized PV In 2015.
On another hand, the growth of PV systems connected to the network, associated to energy storage, will triple, in 2015 to reach a capacity of 775 MW. The concentrated PV solar (CPV) will see for its part a strong growth, that could reach 250 MW of new installations and an expansion of its amrket of 37 %. Moreover, IHS expects also that the Chili will join South Africa to reach a PV installed capacity 1GW. IHS has also named Jordan, Philippines and Honduras as emerging markets will should experience a fast growth on PV In 2015, with forcasted capacities of repectivly, 170 MW, 200 MW and 173 MW. Algeria did not appear in this report inspite of a PV installation programme of 400 MW in 2015 announced by the Ministery of Energy.
the part of the silgle crystal silicon technology will reach 27 % of the global production of PV cells in 2015 against 24 % in 2014, benefiting from the growth of the installations on terraces and roofs. However, the multi crystal will stay dominant in the PV market in 2015. IHS nots also in its report that the efficeincy of the sigle crystal silicon cell overtakes the multi crystal of 2 % and the production costs are of 0,38$/W for the single crystal and 0,34$/W for the multi crystal. The efficiencies on the single-crystal cells of type N can reach 24 %.
The global incomes of the three-phase inverters would reach 2,2 billion dollars according to the predictions of the IHS, which would represent the third of the global incomes of inverters in the world markets. With a growth of more than 31 % compared with 2014, the deliveries of the three-phase inverters would exceed 15 GW in 2015. The deliveries of inverters to Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMOA or Europe-Middle East-Afrique, EMEA), would reach 5 GW among whom 90 % would be three-phase inverters.
It is to specify that the predictions of the IHS on the development of the PV in 2015 were made without taking into account the oil prices fall.
What about the market of the PV in Algeria? According to the Ministry of Energy, the capacity of the installations of PV connected to the network in the regions of the South and the highlands would exceed 400 MW in 2015. The installations of PV decentralized in these regions taken in charge by other sectors, in particular the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development within of rural engineering, will be multiplied. However, no figure is moved forward as for the global capacity which will be installed. Moreover, precise statistics on the global capacity of decentralized PV installed in Algeria is practically non-existent in spite of the efforts granted by the CDER to collect data from various ministerial departments.
At the end, PV modules and solar batteries made in Algeria and which are already on the market deserve to be encouraged, and that in parallel with the last directives of the government aiming to the promotion of the national production.
Prof. Noureddine Yassaa, Director of the EPST CDER
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