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GIEC : the fifth evaluation report RE5 holds an alarmant state on climat

Meetings of the 40th session of the Subsidiary Bodies, Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI40) and the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA40) and 2.5 of the session Durban Platform for Enhanced (ADP 2.5) action in under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which are held in Bonn from June 4 to 15, coinciding with the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Evolution Climate Change (IPCC), with the most alarming conclusions AR4 2007. This report is the product of a synthesis of more than 20,000 scientific studies in their almost entirely by scientists in laboratories with major developed countries and research institutes.

The IPCC AR5 is the cornerstone and the scientific base on which stand the international climate negotiations, which already announced very difficult and happens at a critical phase; marked in particular by the negotiation of a new legally binding and applicable to all Parties for the period pre 2020 climate regime.

Sessions of the Third Meeting of Experts Structured Dialogue (SED3, Structured Expert Dialogue on the 2013-2015 review) gathering scientists and politicians to discuss the various issues discussed in the reports of the three working groups of the IPCC are scheduled on throughout the conference of the UNFCCC. Gaps, shortcomings and challenges have been addressed both by scientists and by the negotiators of the Parties. Geographic disparity in the availability of studies, data and evidence to assess the impacts of climate change is the highest point raised by the African Group. In this respect, the unequal distribution of publications, because of scientific resources and expertise in the field of climate change remains a challenge to ensure a comprehensive and balanced assessment. The new evaluation report provides new based on numerous independent scientific analysis of observation of the climate system, paleoclimatic archives, academic studies to the climate model simulations for the future climate. The purpose of this report is to deliver policy makers and the general public a statement of consensual knowledge on climate change. The observations of the climate system based on direct measurements, remote sensing from satellites or via other tools.

The RE5 is more certain than the last. He says, with a probability greater than 95% "extremely likely, more than 95% chance" the accumulation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to human activities are causing the rise global temperatures recorded since the mid-twentieth century. This probability was estimated at 90% in the fourth report in 2007 (most likely against probable in 2001). For the IPCC, "It is extremely likely that human influence has been the main cause of the warming observed since the mid-twentieth century. Evidence is are multiplied through the improvement and proliferation of observations to a better understanding of the responses of the climate system and improving climate models. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal and, since 1950, there is in this system many unprecedented changes to a time scale of a few decades to millennia. "

This new report is characterized by new scenarios for climate projections. Of the four scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 RCP8.5 and the RCP 2.6 scenario, which involves high GHG emission reductions by the international community, is new in this report. RCP8.5 is the worst, but it is a likely scenario because it corresponds to the extension of current emissions. The other two scenarios are placed between the two ends; optimism and pessimism. In all four scenarios, climate models predict a temperature rise of between 0.3 ° C and 4.8 ° C for the period 2081-2100 compared to the 1986-2005 average. The high uncertainty depends primarily on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions that will be emitted into the atmosphere in the coming decades. Apart from the RCP 2.6 scenario, it is highly unlikely that the rise in temperatures is contained in the threshold of 2 ° C, which is the global goal reiterated at successive UN conferences on climate. Total cumulative emissions should not exceed the range of 1000 to 1300 gigatons of carbon by 2100 (approximately). However, in 2011, the total cumulative emissions of these had already reached 531 giga-tons. Note that these emissions have increased by 3% in 2011 (34 Gt of emissions that year) and that this increase is increasing every year.

Forecast short-term (decadal), covering the period 2012-2035, focusing on the next decade, is another novelty and a strong point of this report. Following the recent controversial research on the cooling effect of aerosols on climate, including the aerosol formed from oceanic sulfur, the negative aerosol forcing causing the climate cooling and countering the warming effect of greenhouse gases emissions is lowered in this new report (-0.9 watts per square meter against 1.82 W/m2 for CO2, CH4 0.97 W/m2, 0.17 W/m2 for N2O and 0.18 W/m2 for CFCs). We are privileged to have contributed to studies of the forcing caused by emissions from biogenic (natural) sources through our scientific expeditions in the South Atlantic Ocean and the Indian Ocean and the tropical and boreal forests. Prof.. Yassaa is the world’s first who discovered the emission of monoterpenes (molecule ten carbon atoms) from marine natural sources (see Yassaa and al. Envrionmental Chemicatry, 2010). The field of aerosol research interest is in vogue and many research institutions whose CDER just set up a first measuring station aerosols in Algeria. However, this report has revised upwards the impact of iron in the oceans of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica on the rise in sea level. With new models and recent observations, scientists predict an average increase of 26 cm to 98 cm by 2100 against 18 cm to 59 cm in the 2007 report.

The most disturbing finding in this report is the intensification of extreme weather events call, more droughts in dry regions and more frequent heat waves, which results in more repeated disasters in vulnerable and least equipped to ways to cope as African countries. It should be noted that the level of certainty with respect to increasing droughts in recent decades is lower than in the fourth report, because of the difficulty of comparing different types of drought and lack of data in some areas. There is less certainty about the causes of the intensification of tropical cyclones recorded since 1970, except in the Atlantic where it is largely attributed to internal variability of the system, for the future the possibility of greater variety in their trajectories and intensity. Temperature measurements revealed that the ten warmest years since 1850 have occurred since 1998. Records were set in 2005 and 2010. However, the upward trend is not clear since 1998. Even if n ’there is not yet consensus explanation among the scientific community, including the arguments of climatologists is that the oceans currently absorb some of the energy of the planet (heat). Another explanation is that the current round of cooling of the Pacific Ocean, which help to reduce rising atmospheric temperatures.

The impacts of climate change highlighted by the IPCC affect food security among others who is seriously threatened particularly in the countries of Africa and South America. Corollary of this food insecurity, the IPCC expects an increase in health problems in many areas, especially in developing countries (increase in intense heat waves, poor nutrition or related to water contamination and diseases food). The text evokes, especially for Africa, a change in the geography of diseases due to changes in rainfall and temperature. Increased risk of extinction have been reported by the IPCC. They cover a large portion of terrestrial and marine species, many of which "will not be able to move quickly enough to find more suitable climates" in climate change. Critical marine ecosystems, such as poles and coral reefs are already particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification. We are privileged to have contributed to these studies through our participation in experiments conducted in Norway in 2005 (peece III: Pelagic Ecosystem CO2 Enrichment Study) and 2011 (SOPRAN, Surface Ocean Processes in the Anthropocene) (see publications which Prof. participated. Yassaa). An increase of tree mortality may occur in many regions, while one of the challenges of the fight against global warming through reforestation.

IPCC experts warn of increased immigration and movement of pollution because of poverty and scarcity that could give rise to rivalries between states. In the end, the IPCC experts argue in their report that to limit by the end of the century the concentration of carbon dioxide at 450 ppm (parts per million) value associated by scientists to a warming of 2 ° C-guess reduce global emissions between 40% and 70% by 2050 and reduce them to a level close to zero by 2100.

Mitigation measures should be strictly applied to achieve this. The most affected by these measures sector is the energy which accounts for 35% of emissions, ahead of agriculture and forestry (24%), industry (21%), transport (14%) and building (6%). The share of clean energy (renewable, nuclear) will have triple or quadruple by 2050, the energy efficiency of buildings should be improved, not forgetting the development of techniques for the capture and storage of CO2. The introduction of more stringent emission standards, the established tax based on emissions (carbon tax) and carbon markets, reducing fossil fuel subsidies are other possible levers according to the IPCC.

The last part of the working group (WGII) which focuses on mitigation has not met a good community of experts in the field of climate change. The Summary for Policymakers is 33 pages of the contribution of Working Group III (WGIII) the IPCC AR5. He says that emissions greenhouse gas emissions in the world continue to increase at an accelerated pace. "The IPCC concludes that urgent action is needed to limit the temperature rise of the planet to two degrees Celsius and that actions taken now will be much less expensive than if they were postponed to the future," according to the press release issued March 31, 2014. This report focuses on the technological and economic options to detain gas emissions greenhouse to acceptable levels. The group of countries LMDC (developing countries similar view) which is part of Algeria "deplores the stranglehold on the scientific process, and the manipulation of scientific data in favor of the position advocated by developed countries is to involve the major emitters among developing countries on a legally binding basis for the realization of the goal of limiting average global temperature to 2 ° C ". The report, according to some experts the LMDC, does not specify explicitly how the less technologically advanced countries as developing countries need to do to move towards a clean energy transition without compromising their right to development and economic growth . They also note that the technologies of capture and storage of carbon are still expensive or not easily mastered by developing countries. To support developing countries, financing, technology transfer, capacity building, exchange of science and experience should seem forcefully in this report. Developing countries face many challenges that require immediate action; the safety of people and property, food security, poverty eradication, health, sustainable development in its broadest sense. Climate change is a global phenomenon. Take action at a region affects the entire planet and long term.

The group of LMDC, which is part of Algeria considers that the element of common but differentiated responsibility must be the heart of the whole process. Work under the Durban Platform should not treat only the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, but all elements of the decision 1CP17 (Kyoto Protocol), which must be addressed in a balanced and integrated including including adaptation to climate change remains the main concern for much of the developing countries, but also the means of implementation (financing, technology transfer and capacity building). With regard to mitigation, Algeria is part of the principles of the Convention and the historical responsibility of developed countries should be leaders in meeting their commitments regarding the reduction of GHG emissions. The contribution of developing countries in the international effort must be determined at national level, taking into account national circumstances and capabilities in line with the prince of common but differentiated responsibilities.

Critics concerned including industrialized countries, strong emitters of greenhouse gas emissions, such as China, the United States, European countries and India, which together account for more than half of the global emissions of carbon dioxide. The transition to new energy technologies and to new economic models are not without consequences on developing countries. This report does not take into account fully the technological challenges of the new energies that require mastery and advanced technicality which is unfortunately not within the reach of developing countries.

This report provides details on the annual increase in emissions dioxide starting from 27 giga tons (Gt) of CO2 equivalent in 1970 to 49 Gt in 2010. It is also mentioned that to have a 50% chance to keep the temperature increase Overall the surface of the earth below 2 ° C, an additional emission 1550Gt greenhouse gas emissions should be avoided before 2100. At the current rate, this limit will be exceeded by 2050.

The report of the IPCC WGIII alert the transmitting set by developed countries for 2020 and approved at Cancun Climate Summit 2010 goal is not consistent with maintaining a temperature increase to below 2 ° C. Achieving this goal requires a substantial reduction beyond 2020.

The IPCC recognizes that renewable energy industry made significant gains in performance and cost reduction. However, it notes that population growth and global demand for energy and increasing the share of coal in the overall mix of fossil fuels in recent years threaten to thwart any mitigation effort.

Co-Chair of IPCC mitigation group, Ottmar Edenhofer, has stated that "Regardless of the accuracy of the emissions targets, we must begin to put the train line attenuation increasing fundamentally low energy emission carbon in the world. " Nuclear energy and Eco-friendly technologies Geo-environmental engineering, such as the removal and capture of atmospheric CO2 and storing carbon emissions must be considered, he added.

Finally, the IPCC, although it is not mandated to prescribe policies, it has succeeded in strengthening the links between science and policy. Developing countries should give due importance to science, so that their scientists to be able to contribute to improving knowledge, to fill gaps, challenges, responding to international challenges and to assist policy their countries, and for one and ultimate goal, keep the current interest and future of their homelands.


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